Climate Change Blog Post

Simulations use models to predict all possible outcomes and scenarios based off existing data. They are used to predict events that are impossible to execute, expensive or dangerous. After playing with two different climate change models, I have raised some questions over the reliability and integrity of climate models to correctly predict future outcomes.

I was very excited when I began using the models, because it was like “predicting the future”.  I was able to enter relatively real data, which meant that I could determine my own carbon footprint – yet this made me question the validity of the outcome as the model was created in 2009. It was honestly quite confusing too as I understand these models can get quite confusing, especially where to enter the data, and how the model calculates the final outcome. The second model I used allowed me to visualise future climate change. At first glance, the model seemed quite accurate, using valid data to measure climate for the near future. However, after around 30 years, the model seems to become abnormal and deviates from the trend – stagnating at a specific temperature, whilst the temperature change seems to be erratic.

The benefits of using such models is that the model provides a rough prediction rather than no prediction. Many of the predictions tend to be accurate but there is definitely questions raised about the accuracy of the outcome. The use of existing data means that the models will be accurate for the immediate future, however as time moves forward, the model declines in accuracy. Models can be improved with continuous current data, however this requires a lot of computing power as many variables and processes would have to be factored in to creating the model.

Specific disadvantages of using Climate Change models:

  • Often these models are too simplified, which provides us with a rough estimate of how the climate would change, thus not giving us an accurate prediction.
  • The data for climate change is always changing and sometimes unexpectedly. Moreover, these models vary according to location so having a general model cannot indicate the outcome of climate change.
  • Human factors are not taken into account which highly affects climate change – this has been most impactful after the industrial revolution.
  • A lot of time and processing power is needed to predict future climate change using simulations – so predictions may take time to compute.

Concept of the climate change models continues to remain the same. Numbers, variables and constants are continuously changing, but ‘professional’ climate change models have the ability to adjust to changing measurements collected form weather instruments, to hopefully create a more accurate model and simulation. High-CPU powered computer (Supercomputers) are able to compile all this information – due to the computation capability. Moreover, more first world countries are able to have professional climate change models for local prediction.

Even though Al Gore and Lord Monckton both had opposing arguments 20 years ago, it seems to be that Al Gore has made significant progress globally since then, as he has produced a documentary showing  his impact on raising awareness about climate change. More importantly, the perspective of climate change was not profoundly set in stone, which is why Lord Monckton was able to sway people with his evidence, making it seem like Al Gore was not looking at all of history. The mounting build up of evidence for climate change has influenced people to side with Al Gore due to the evidence in his first movie in 2006 “The Inconvenient Truth”. Currently, with much more advanced technology to measure changes in climate, more accurate models can be used to simulate climate change. Al Gore’s evidence has accumulated over time and has thus made him much more influential, affecting more people. Currently, his predictions are true and the climate is truly changing!!

TLDR: DrTech has made some of the best excel spreadsheets I’ve ever seen, and with his continued support and collaboration, the process of entering data in the climate models had been very swift.

 

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